The Apple iPad is not an iPhone and it is not a laptop or netbook. The Apple iPad is a media/content delivery device. Instead of comparing the iPad with other touch screen tablets, or with the iPhone, or with laptops/netbooks, I think it deserves comparison with the Sony Playstation, the Microsoft Xbox, and the Nintendo Wii. These devices are closed, the manufacturers make money from licensing companies to create content, and they all have tacked on online stores for purchasing content. It is the content where these companies make their money and to such an extent that they reportedly take a loss on the hardware in order to get these content delivery devices into the hands of consumers.
The iPad fits exactly in this game console mold as a content delivery device. Apple already has music/movie/tv content being delivered and the iPad is going to be able to access those streams. The iPhone added applications which the iPad will also be able to access. In addition, the iPad will bring two new content sources: applications built specifically for the iPad and the books/magazines/newspapers. Amazon has been doing a rollicking trade with e-books supplied to its Kindle and Apple will take a piece of this market. The Kindle probably provides a better reading experience and definitely provides a better battery life, but this is not going to matter. The aesthetics of the iPad are going to win over the general population and people who would never have thought of buying a Kindle are not going to think twice about buying an iPad.
Every media report I've seen on Apple's newly announced iPad has mentioned disappointment that this is just a "big iPod/iPhone". However, that's pretty much exactly what I want. I have two concrete use cases I can quote:
1.
In an earlier post I mentioned that my wife spent more time using her iPhone than she spent using her newly obtained Sony P-Series netbook. At the end of that post I predicted that if an Apple Tablet were to appear, it would basically relegate the Sony to the nether world under the bed. Well, Apple delivered exactly the device that will cause my prediction to come to fruition. I will buy an iPad when it comes out and my new prediction is that I won't be able to pry it from my wife's hands. She will be using it to keep up with Facebook, chat with friends, and browse the web for recipes. I'll have to wait until she puts it down to grab a few minutes with it and then give it up again upon her return. I suspect this scenario will play out in a lot of households.
2. I have bought a bunch of e-books over the last few years. I read these on my 13" MacBook when I am on the road. They way I read (the pdf e-books) is to enter full screen and then rotate the view 90 degrees. I then hold my MacBook vertically so that the screen is in a portrait orientation. This provides an experience where I can have an entire page on screen and have the text readable, but it is uncomfortable. The iPad, out of the box, fits squarely in this use case, without the discomfort.
These two reasons are enough for me to shell out for Apple's newest shiny. At present I plan to buy the entry level version and pick up a beefier one at a future iteration.
My predictions for the Apple's success as a result of the iPad are:
1. The iPad won't sell close to the numbers we have seen for the iPod/iPhone,
2. There will be a fall in sales of Apple's entry level laptops as people purchase the iPad instead. However, iPad sales will outstrip the fall in laptop sales as there will be people not in the market for a laptop buying the iPad,
3. Overall, Apple's revenue will increase thanks to these extra iPad sales and also the content sales the iPad will provide.
Apple's stock was falling yesterday. If I had the money, I'd be buying.